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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."